[FishSticks]

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Ridiculous. What you're saying is that no lay person is EVER correct in his criticism of the EV of a coach's call. If you believe that, you may just be the dumbest person on this forum.

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That's not what I'm saying. Let me make it crystal clear what I'm saying:

Tom Cowley you are an arrogant doucheprick with a chip on your shoulder, and you feel like you are smarter than everyone else. Your intellectual ego blinds you from the basic fact that you really don't know much at all about football, and you naively have the opinion that any true scholar with a mastery of math could enlighten many NFL head coaches on a variety valuable concepts. Although these ideas are quite rudimentary for you, you think they are simply beyond the grasp of many others. You reduce complex gametime decisions to crude EV calculations and algebra, when really the underlying math is insignificant in the decision process compared to the many human factors involved. Yes, based on the math DS provided his assumption is correct. No, 42% can never be blindly applied to any actual gametime situation, so the entire premise of your argument is severely flawed. If we could assume these numbers magically held true every time, then sure, it's a no brainer - but alas, that's just not how football works. Perhaps you should attend a few games and learn more before taking the stance that you could make better decisions that Belichick.

Arm chair quarterbacks are sometimes right, sometimes wrong. Generally they debate decisions that other football minds have differing opinions about. What you're talking about is something that flatly no one in the NFL buys in to - if you could set aside your foolish pride for a moment you could understand the big picture instead of arguing algebra.