Re: Thoughts
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Starting with preflop. I can't believe this is a debate. The raiser is 4 off the button. Plus, at a time like this, where I'm sure some of the thinking players are considering filing me under R for Retarded, I WANT to reinforce my maniacal image. It's great for metagame going forward. AJ is an auto-raise. KQ and AT is where I start wondering at what price I'll buy advertised insanity.
As far as the flop goes, I'm with people on the check train if it's something like J92dd or even J82dd. On this flop, there's too many hands folding. 14:1 is just too good not to take a stab. The CO is new to the game, but he's cold-called my raises a couple times in the first orbit or two since he sat down. I don't know how much of his range here is AK/AQ, but I want him super-uncomfy in case he has a hand like that. The button is awful all the time but sometimes he lo(o)ses his mind, and I think there is a strong positive correlation between him going off the reservation and me putting lots of chips in the pot pre-flop. An hour ago, he and I played a pot where he capped 74o preflop three ways and proceeded to play bottom pair like it was the nuts. I'd give more examples, but I didn't see any of the other hands we played together by this point. He needs to be put in his place, specifically by me.
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This is all well thought out and solid. I'm not sure about the turn though, because you only have 4 outs against someone if someone has a pair.
I suppose we could put hand ranges on the two loose players and calculate the % of the time that one of them will have you beat on the river.
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