Re: Theory Post: Reraised Blind Battles and Bluffing with Marginal Han
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(These ranges and labels may not be accurate for many games but it captures to some degree three different ideal-typical players as far as 3-betting. I did not include a simulation for a total nit, like TT+ AK+ because intuitively I am pretty sure you don’t want to challenge this player post-flop with marginal holdings).
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Two concerns of mine with this thread...
1) The main problem I see is that the 3-bet range for a "total nit" that you outlined above is not that terribly far from the OOP 3-bet range from a standard unknown TAG at these limits. Sure most 2p2 TAGs are re-raising with AT sometimes, AJ/AQ often, etc., but it takes quite a few hands with someone to determine his 3-bet range, and it certainly can't be clearly deduced from HUD stats.
Until you know for sure that villain is 3-betting lite enough for this to be profitable (for instance he 3-bets hands like 77 and AJ every time even though a lot of active 3-betters still just call sometimes), then I think you're going to be spewing often. And once you know villain does 3-bet lite--say he shows down a SC in a rr pot or something--it's likely that he'll narrow his 3-bet range after everyone saw him get out of line.
2) I just don't like the idea of bluffing against someone's narrowed range when it's uncertain exactly what you're representing. Do you always raise sets on that dry flop? Do you shove QQ/JJ? A lot of the times, no. Don't you 4bet preflop with AA/KK sometimes?
I'm not crazy about hand analysis that assumes "well villain can only call if he has xx" because that ignores what villain perceives to be your range (well I guess if he only calls with xx he's intuitively putting you on a range, so I'm mainly saying there are a lot more factors to look than simply "we go all in so he always folds xx- and calls with yy+").
Keyser (on my gimmick while I studddy!!!)
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