Re: 2/4 B&M - Bet or checkraise monster flop that I capped preflop?
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Here's some more, putting ALL the villains on top 10% of hands:
Player 1 JJ: 24.243%
Player 2 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo: 18.9%
Player 3 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo: 18.9%
Player 4 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo: 18.9%
Player 5 88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo: 18.9%
You're also not getting 5:1, you're getting 5.75:1. Anything over 17.39% equity is profitable.
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How is anything over 17.39% profitable? You need to be winning >= 20% of the time to make the cap breakeven or better, assuming everybody will call that last bet (which is probably reasonable).
Anyway, I came back to ask, if we assume that you have a 4-5% equity edge (so you'll win 24-25% of the time, even though you're only putting in 20% of the money) for the cap. Is this all you think you need? You don't think this hand is a hand that is hard to play and loses some of its value because after the flop you're stuck with decisions that are very hard to make.
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