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Old 02-26-2007, 05:36 AM
gedanken gedanken is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 261
Default Re: fishy river bet?

Ok, I certainly hated his turn call at the time. I was about 80% sure he'd fold after his tiny bet. Didn't give him credit for a ten at all. I mean, if I had it, I'd bet enough to push dorks like me off a draw!

I was also thinking that if a flush hit after such an obvious call, he wouldn't be calling any real river bet.

I did some math and if he folds/calls the turn 80/20 then always calls the half-pot river bet, I average +248. If I call the turn and he always calls a half-pot river bet, I'm only +57. If he sometimes folds to a river bet, it's much worse.

I guess I'm just wildly overestimating his fear of the turn raise. If he calls 50% of the time, I'm still +175, 3x better than calling.

This isn't a ring game, so the math IS bogus. But it seems to agree with my turn bet at some level. I'll keep thinking on it. Y'all obviously know more than I do.

Yeah, PF under the gun, I should have folded. Just watching too many 6-limper pots. It won't happen again.

mscheescake's thinking led to the misguided post subject: The other player's disgust was that I didn't stack him with the flush.

thanks!
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