Re: how long before PS UB and FT drop?
Party has gained market share because it spent truckloads of money on marketing in GERMANY, a market which might or might NOT be viable in the future, as no one knows yet whether the German government will extend its crackdown on offshore online sports betting (Bwin in particular was targeted by the German government) to offshore online poker.
Full Tilt was one of the first to dip its toes into the German market by putting the Full Tilt invitational from Monaco on German sports TV network DSF.
However, Full Tilt hadn't followed up with additional efforts in Germany, as it was pre-occupied with getting its name out in the UK to prepare for an IPO, which obviously had to be postponed once the UIGEA was passed.
Again, EVERYTHING is in flux in this business. With France and Israel in heavy crackdown mode, and with Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Turkey, Russia, and even parts of Canada (notably Ontario Province) leaning toward eventual crackdowns, no one knows yet how this business will look like 24 months from now.
(The likes of Cryptologic and Playtech already placed their bets in East and Southeast Asia, as they are operating under the assumption that GOVERNMENT entities or existing GOVERNMENT-LICENSED MONOPOLIES will be the only legal online poker operators in many territories. Cryptologic and Playtech are pursuing a software licensing approach rather than an operator approach. )
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