Phil,
Just found today.
I still think that whatever the number of steps and the difficulty of Abiogenesis, the sheers number of experiments (ie collision of molecules with molecules) makes it a really high probability if not a virtual certainty. Also I do not assume that life on earth is how it would evolve anywhere else. By definition of Evolution that is much less likely if not impossible.
Still the thing is the first replicator only...
Those are my understanding of the numbers involved. You may not grasp them the way I do.
Link to Telegraph (UK)