[sweetjazz]

Maybe this will be an insightful post...maybe it won't...

Let's say that "ABC" poker is making the correct play given the limited information available. If someone is playing maniacally, that could involve calling down K or Q high on certain boards. Let's agree that our "ABC" player is capable of this.

His only weakness is that he is predictable. Opponents know the few situations he is likely to bluff in and his bets/calls/raises tend to defend his range pretty narrowly.

How can he lose? Well, if the aggressive players use this additional information available to them to extract the max from him and lose the minimum. If the aggro players play way too loose or spew too much or don't catch on to his predictability, "ABC" can win. But once they know his style, they can find counterstrategies that he can't beat even from a game-theoretic point of view, without adding making his strategy more unpredictable.

In short, if there is asymmetric information sharing between players (so that some players are easier to read than others), then there is an edge that goes to the less predictable players. That edge leads to an EV advantage and also means that the unpredictable player can play more hands profitably than the predictable player.