wow... some of the ridiculous comments in this thread show me how far we have to go to bridge the gap between the US and east asia.
*sigh*
the following comments are made by an american living in japan who has also lived in china.
first, the good points. degen's post and olivert's post have good info. i can't find any errors in them (although there may be some).
ok, for the rest i'm just going to quote and respond:
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I doubt Japan would bring much into the mix, as Japan, by and large, is not a nation of card players.
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this is a semi-truth. while there are relatively few "card" players in japan, there are many mah jong players. mah jong has many charateristics similar to western card games that can "feed" into poker. a great mah jong player would be very likely to become a great poker player.
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Start an Online poker site for asians and watch the money pour in. Everyone knows asians like to gamble, its only a matter of time
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i largely agree with this... assuming foreigners can play, too.
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1. The typical Japanese person doesn't have enough spare time to sit at home playing online poker. They only go home to sleep, if that. Most Japanese do their gambling in Pachinko parlours located on the street near their office.
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this is comically incorrect. some japanese have very little spare time -- especially the salarymen. young people, however, are taking a very different line in life and are largely shunning the salaryman lifestyle. "freeters" (free timers) are young people, sometimes very smart ones, who are working some trivial job and living super cheaply so that they can enjoy a massive amount of free time. a lot of these people play video games, are manga/anime fans, or are internet junkies. a large part of the freeter population could be potential poker players. of course, students have a TON of free time, and could also player during many of their classes. housewives are also possible (i.e., they often have free time), but are less likely candidates.
there are a lot of gamblers who play pachinko, and i think some of these people would LOVE nlhe. pachinko players are like slots players, so you figure out how many might take up poker.
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Additionally, Internet Cafes in Japan are extremely expensive by any standard, and especially by asian standards.
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this is somewhat true, but there are some caveats. first, there are "packages" that make internet cafes affordable (e.g., 8 hours for a set fee). second, getting a blistering fast internet connection in japan is very cheap. i have a fiber optic connection to my house for something like $60 a month (maybe cheaper... i haven't looked lately).
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Casinos in Macao don't spread poker.
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starting in 2007.
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So that leaves Hong Kong and South Korea that have cheap, reliable internet connections and no gambling bans.
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south korea has a lot of potential in this department. the two years of mandatory military service give young men a lot of free time. a lot of them play games (e.g., starcraft or baduk) -- poker is a natural extension of this, imo.
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China would probably allow online gambling ONLY on sites that were wholly owned and run by the Chinese government.
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this is a good observation and my biggest fear. i have fantasies about playing on svenska spel -- i hope china will be different.
to hedge a bit here, i really do think china will open up quite a bit over the next 10-15 years (including intenret access), but i realize that the face of poker will be completely different then.
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If poker ever became widely popular in Japan I would say that the ratio of fish/sharks would just fall. A higher percentage there would be serious players.
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i think it's true that there would be many "serious" players who are avid students of the game, but i don't think that many would become sharks. as a case in point, there are TONS of books on playing good mah jong, but SO many japanese are REALLY bad at it.
the japanese "fish" will come in two forms. the first is "the gambler". this will be someone with money who just wants to gamble, and will end up getting fleeced. interestingly, i think these are most likely to appear in high stakes games rather than lower stakes, but there will be some for all. check out the tony g link below. anyway, these are the "typical" fish you know and love.
the second group will be rocks. japanese LOVE systems, and they will be able to play a system really well. the problem is that most japanese largely lack creativity and an ability to adapt. as such, skilled players will be able to either read the japanese players like a book (i.e., the japanese play predictably tight ABC poker) or vary their game enough to thoroughly confuse the japanese player (e.g., something as simple as playing semi-loose one orbit and tight the next would completely confound most japanese players. i think most japanese would REALLY struggle against LAGs in nlhe. fr lhe games could become rockfests if filled with japanese, but if you can force the game to be sh or hu, then i doubt most will have the ability to adapt.
don't get me wrong... there will be some OUTSTANDING japanese players, but they will be the exception rather than the rule.
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Seriously, if a large amount of Japanese people got serious about poker, we'd all be screwed. Have you ever played a video game you thought you were the best at with a Japanese kid? It makes me sad just to think about.
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see above. video games are largely mechanical and rely on dexterity and game knowledge. japanese will be great at mechanical games -- fr lhe and fr lo8 could get super-nitty, but mechanical systems have limited utility in sh games and big bet games.
general comments:
- many asians are avid video gamers, and a fair number of video gamers make the transition to poker when they realize that they can make money off of their hobby.
- as stated above, mechanical games will likely become rock gardens.
- i'd worry about the koreans... they can be aggressive. i think you'll ultimately get a lot of slags and lags out of korea in addition to some system-junky rocks. you have to figure out whether these aggressors are good for your game or not.
- to me, china is the random element. poker, both live and online, will be impacted profoundly by whatever policies the chinese government decide to create and (possibly) enforce.
- iirc, i read somewhere that the average table stakes somewhere in east asia were 4x the average of lv table stakes. honestly, i think the biggest games are going to end up in asia.
three links that have some comments from tony g on poker in asia:
http://tonyg.pokerworks.com/2006/08/...n-japan-2.html
http://tonyg.pokerworks.com/2006/11/...oker-tour.html
http://tonyg.pokerworks.com/2006/11/amazing-asia.html