[The_Scout]

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And that's not be speculating. That's backed up by cold hard numbers. From PokerSiteScout Stars and FTP have both seen 20% peak player declines

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Your statement is very misleading, being used in this way...

The fact is, there are more peak players NOW, than there were before the UIGEA

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Actually, I think this statement is the one that's misleading. There has been significant growth lately in the European market, which says nothing about the USA. Besides, the peak numbers by themselves don't tell the whole story. There is a lot of detail hidden behind those numbers.

Let's look at what happened.

(1) The UIGEA was signed into law and some of the largest sites pulled out of the US. A huge percentage of American players dropped out of the market.

(2) Some fraction of those that dropped out (less than 100%) gradually made their way to Stars, Full Tilt, etc.

(3) Neteller pulled out, and ~20% of remaining American players were lost.

There may still be an underlying growth trend in US players, but it is currently being overwhelmed by political/legal events.