[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
PJ: River really confuses me because of the villain's read on your hand. No way will he believe you have a pair of Q's after the flop and turn action. I know your plan was to bet/fold, please share some more insight why a bet is better than a check in this specific scenario.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

TT, it's not so much that I'm trying to represent a Q here, even though it's certainly one secondary reason to bet. The main reason is in reading his hand. I think the only logical conclusions are that he has a 5 or a flush. But let's look closer at when he came alive. He raised the flop, as people might do here with a) a flush draw, b) a Q, c) a 5.

But then I 3-bet the flop, and he just called even though there was another person in the hand. If he'd had the made hand, he'd 4-bet. Then the turn brings a third spade. I continue betting, and now he raises! What did he like about that 9s? It really makes a flush look very likely, which is why I insta 3-bet the turn. He could also have a 5, and for some reason decided to slow on the flop and come back again on the turn (maybe his tanking was like, "oh no, are my three 5s any good now that the spade came in?").

So I have to bet the river because I just won't get raised very often at all. If he is bold enough to raise a 5, I'm beat anyway. It is a ridiculously easy fold to a raise here, since nobody at Commerce ever expects their opponent to fold in this spot. If this guy is raising me, he has a boat 100% of the time. But since flushes are just as likely as boats, and add in the fact that he won't raise a 5 very often, there's still value in betting out because he will find it way too hard to fold a flush for 1 more bet in a huge pot.

If I'm going to put one more bet into this pot, it's going to be with me betting -- not calling.