Re: QQ vs TAP and continued aggression
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again - I think if you call the flop, then you are making a commitment to showdown
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I disagree. A king or ace drops our equity against his range signifigantly, and we'll get one of those about a third of the time. Plus, we are getting about 16-1 on the flop call (8-1 if you count both bets we put in), but only 5-1 on the bets we put in on both the turn and river combined with the eventual pot size.
The K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gives us a good redraw, without which I think folding is probably going to save us some bets over the long run, even if we sometimes fold the best hand.
Calling down is easy if no overcards come, which is a majority of the time, but saying that calling a flop bet commits you to showdown seems irresponsible.
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what i'm asking is only for the flop
are you folding the turn, if the turn is not a spade?
... I don't see to much wrong with folding the flop.
because if you call the flop, you should be calling down (should have including ... folding to an Ace or King)
so you are making a commitment of 5 bets to win 20 (so 4:1) - which you have about 17% equity ... but factor in the times you'll fold when a non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Ace or King hits (I would like to know if it's even worth the flop call)
... I do not know how to show this (anyone care to help?)
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Calling down is easy if no overcards come, which is a majority of the time, but saying that calling a flop bet commits you to showdown seems irresponsible.
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You'll hit an overcard by the river about a third of the time. A non-spade Ace or King folds me on the turn.
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