Re: No, I am saying the argument fails because it confuses people
[ QUOTE ]
rutang misunderstands the argument, his statement "and whether or not I fold a hand is determined somewhere around 95% of the time by the cards I'm dealt. so, in a given hand, luck is more than an 80% determiner if I even have a chance to play..." is a testament to his skill, not chance - HE determines which hands to fold, the cards do not REQUIRE it.
[/ QUOTE ]
that would be true if you are trying to figure out whether or not skill is used in every hand, not whether or not skill has a greater than 50% impact on the results. This is somewhat difficult to discuss without a clear definition of how you legally analyze skill and luck. The fact is, that in a single hand of poker, just like in a single at bat in baseball, luck has a much more significant role than skill in determining the outcome. But when you analyze a player's performance over a longer stretch of time, you'll see that profitable player's skill will impact thier results much more than luck, in the long run.
And at the end of the year, Ichiro and Todd Helton will be closer to .400 than 99% of the field. Just like my VPIP, thier decision when and how to swing happens on every pitch, but luck still dominates a single at-bat.
|