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Also, I don't think it's fair to compare the stock market to blackjack or slot machines which are -EV games that you can never ever win in the long run. I think everyone can agree that with a larger amount of time to dedicate, anyone can beat an index fund- but I don't know anyone who can beat slow machines or blackjack ( assuming no card counting), no matter how much effort/ time they dedicate
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I just read the whole thread and didn't want to let this go by. I totally disagree that anyone can learn to beat the index just by putting time in. I think even Desertcat agrees. In addition to just doing incorrect analysis, the fear and greed factors are just huge.
In fact, even passive and asset allocation investors can underperform due to fear and greed.
Here is a good article from William Bernstein from the winter of 2003 on what it takes to have a very successful investing experience using passive asset allocation.
-Tom