Re: No, I am saying the argument fails because it confuses people
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4) The "skill" argument is one of the weakest arguments and has the least chance of gaining any political traction. I think it is widely held that only 8% or so players are winning players long term-- that is to say are skillful enough to beat other players and the rake. Clearly in a rake environment to whatever degree "skill" is involved this game is only +ev for the vast minority of people and the "house". For society it is -ev, unless you factor in considerations such as personal freedom.
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take this example- donkey and a pro sitting in same seat and seeing same cards against the same 5 oppenents.
using your DVR you go hand by hand letting each one make their own bets with the same 2 cards in 2 cash games with opponents holding same cards.
give the donkey and the pro AA- 100 times and 7-8 suited 100 throughout the session. give each 200 big blinds in the cash game.
the pro will maximize wins with 7-8 ( by bluffing or catching and minimize losses with AA)
the donkey will raise too much with AA or donk off his 200 blinds in a heartbeat over and over again. and alot of donks will likely fold 7-8 preflop or limp and fold post flop.
Rake is like commission. Refco is low while your local broker might hit you for $50 a turn (trading metals) if you let him.
poker sites and casinos can make the rake what they see fit, some low (or none) and some high. some of the very high tables on full tilt prob rake less than 0.1%.
this 50k hands is hogwash. i'm just a descent small stakes no limit player. my typical runs on the party reloads included maybe 4 diferent 2 hour sessions ( my account and room-mate) while watching TV and 8 tabling i would have winning session prob 80% of the time. the cards may make a difference on how much i won but good cards can lead to the losing sessions as well. set vs set on flop.
instead of playing 8 tables for 2 hours, i would like to think playing 2 tables for 8 hours with the TV off would increase my win-rate even higher. it's pretty sad when you don't know your oppenents names, get timed out or don't realize your full ring table is actually down to 5 handed and can still win.
and since i would get crushed at higher stakes (tighter games-more preflop raises) i think it's safe to say a pro would have a win-rate of 90% had he done my party sessions for me.
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