Re: 30/60 Bellagio AJs Take 2
Calling the river at this point seems like a no-brainer.
The interesting part of the hand is the turn action. Raising is correct if she has: the case ace with worse kicker or a flush draw. It is incorrect if she is bluffing or has a really weak hand, or if she has a better ace (unlikely, given no pf raise) or a boat already (also probably unlikely). If she has a medium strength hand here (say, an 8 or higher pair) then it depends, right? Given the description of the player, it sounds like she wouldn't fold so it would raising is correct, right? So, is she likely to get tricky with a draw or a bluff here? Sounds like no, although clearly only OP knows. So, does she have a worse ace more often than a better hand? I would imagine so. Doesn't that make 3-balling the turn correct, assuming OP's reads are correct? Certainly, this would be a different play against an unknown or a different player. I think then the call turn c/r, call river/bet if checked to line is more profitable.
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