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Old 02-13-2007, 05:36 PM
Small Fry Small Fry is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Livermore, CA
Posts: 761
Default Re: All in with random hand, get a caller, what are my odds?

Well now it's a much more interesting problem / theory. I don't play micro limit or NL but I'll give you my .02 anyways. If you just sit down and go all in on the first hand I doubt you get called except by really good hands, even if you are short stacked, so I would put you at about 25% to win. Most will want more info on you / your style before calling your all in. The larger the pool of players the greater your ability to carry this out as it will take a little while before what you're doing is apparent.

But I still see no real defense against it. A player sits down and goes all in on the first hand for 10xbb. (Or even 20xbb which I think makes a call even less likely) Do you call with a marginal hand for what could be a coin flip? What if you know he'll do this with any hand? Why would you risk it? Especially if you know this guy is only going to do it one time and then leave. Maybe he shows up in an hour and does it again.

I would be interested to know how long this style could be carried out. Are there enough tables going / players moving around in a night that you can pull this move 50+ times, every night. The upside is that if players do become aware and decide to call you with marginal hands your win % could go from 25% to around 40%.

This new question / style might get some good responses in the theory forum???? Unless you don't want to give away your "secret" strategy.
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