[locutus2002]

Hi David,

I have worked some numbers as my gut says that you are way off.

I found the following results given some crude assumptions which I will list later. Anyone interested in exploring this in more depth I will give them my spreadsheets and insights.

2000 player no rebuy structure.
1% chance of being at the same table for avg player
4% chance of being at the same table for advanced player (ROI 2.0)

1000 player no rebuy
2% chance of being at the same table at least once for avg player
9% chance of being at the same table for advanced player (ROI 2.0)

I estimate that these numbers are within 30% accurate.

some qualitative results are important. Obviously the chance of being at the same table increases tremendously as you go deeper with both accounts. Also the duration of the shared table is likely to go up in the later (more probable) portion of the tournament.

The math for 3 accounts is too cumbersome, but should be
much more profitable.

Here are my assumptions:
It's a growth/decay f(x)= T*a^-x
~750 hands for a 2000 player/ ~650 hands for a 1000 player tourney
10 players per table
avg player has exactly survival probability of population (exp decay model (a=1.007)
adv player has double survival probability (a=1.038)


The model does not predict the number of hands that a player will be at the same table with himself
The model does not compensate for any advantage while a player is at the same table with himself.