Re: great post, but ...
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Consider that online lots of folks are looking for the "right" answer because they are either thinking only on the 1st level, or they want to know the play to maximize EV+. There is almost always an answer (a consensus) on this level.
There is of course an "optimum" strategy, and then the need to vary your play against observant opponents -- to acheive balance and truly maximize winnings. This seems to be the meat of this thread, and I agree with its broader point.
But what if you opponents aren't observant? What if they don't really look past their own hand, or even their own PT stats on you? It is folks that focus more on numbers and less on feel and reads that play on the 1st level and most "need" to "know" the "optimal play."
This is linear, AI-inspired thinking ... it is the kind of thinking that is all too common in poker and the world, and I think that you correctly point out that exploiting it is the key.
But -- and here's the key -- I think that against online lineups you almost HAVE to play the "optimal" play (nearly) every time, and vary only when it dead-on obvious that the "changeup" play is warranted. There are two reasons for this: first, PLO & PLO8 are so complicated (unlike holdem) that most players don't make the right decision often enough to justify playing on the 2nd level (or higher), and because most players are satisfied with the "optimal" play, and anything more sophisticated will be lost on them.
Or, better put, even though you're right to blitz from time to time on third down, I think that you can get in trouble at more tables than not by trying to get too clever. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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I am an idiot... what are alll these levels people are talking about? are they like my troll mage? I can do 10k dmg fireballs~~~
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