Re: Live 25-50, big decision with bottom 2
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Easy fold if the player is solid. No way he has an overpair unless he's terrible. Best case he has a big draw an you are about even money. Worst case you are drawing damn near dead.
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I like how you factor the fact that he is getting 2:1+ on his money into your analysis...
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OK, lets factor it in. If its 50:50 we're slightly better than even money or drawing near dead, then it becomes a coinflip as you said (about the 33% expected win rate needed to break even). I think we're likely in worse shape than that in terms of likely holdings, hence to me it's a fold.
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