[ceczar]

[ QUOTE ]
This would be a horrendus call on the flop. do you think he wants to call with a hand when he has a draw? If he has a draw, he keeps his mouth shut cause he wants you to fold. This is a set most of the time, which leaves you drawing dead. if 50% of the time, you're drawing dead, 25% he has a draw, and 25% he has a AA/KK, you are -EV, and I think he has a set much more often than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

i actually think he has a big draw the vast majority of the time here, and an overpair almost never. in my experience those who limp big pairs are not the types to go crazy on the flop in the face of this much action.

you're getting 8.7-4.1, so you need 32% equity. in the simple case of either set or OESFD, if he has the draw 2/3 of the time you have to call. if you relax it to include OESDs and NFDs, he needs to have the draw 3/5 of the time or so to make this a call.

i happen to think 2/3 is about right (based on how quick he raised especiallyl), but this is very much player and read dependent.