Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
I would probably push against any bet.
What are the possibilities?
He could min bet. What does this tell you? He's a bad player. Post-Oak bet, doyle hates it, but its everywhere. Either he's got a monster and he's transparently milking you, or he's weak and taking a pathetic stab at the pot. Both plays are so common they don't really give you any more information and based on your position in the tourny I still want all my chips in now. Would he keep betting at it if you smooth call? Hard to say-- he might make another min bet for $300, again either if he's milking you or if he's weakly bluffing. But if he's bluffing I think he's more likely to check it down at this point unless he improves. I think any player who would bluff weakly on the flop and turn against that board might be loose enough to call your check raise all in.
He could make a standard bet: somewhere in the 1/2 pot to pot range of $550-$1125. Here I don't think there is too much difference between calling now or raising. Even if he bets $550, you call- the pot is $2225 and you've got $1910 left. There it seems to me one of you is going to bet the turn and if you're committed to your hand you'll end up all in anyway. At least if you check raise now you're not letting him see any cards for free.
He could overbet the pot. This is kinda like the min bet in that its obviously a mistake but it doesn't tell you which way. Either he was slowplaying AA and hit a set but got nervous at the "drawtastic" board, or he was hoping to get lucky w/ 22 and didn't and panicked. Either way his all-in is prob a -EV move, but he made it. Here I'd still call-- Hopefully Caro's Stong means Weak Law is at work and I'm way ahead. This overbet to me suggests an inexperienced player more likely to have crap then have me dominated, and at least a couple of the times I am dominated I'll hit my K for the straight and really wreck the Villains life.
So no matter what it looks like I'm pushing after checking.
(Also I am pretty sure I am spelling Villain wrong and have a sneaking suspicion it might be Villian. But I can't fold it now, I mean I've used it like 12 times so I'm post committed, right?)
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