[stjohnychan]

This is a nice subtle little hand.

I'd agree that you have to play AJs here. Six handed (5 really, because UTG folded) you've gotta feel pretty good going in. The 3x the big blind raise is pretty standard and I don't think anyone's going to argue w/ that..

The flop is where it gets interesting. You don't have any read on your opponent by this point? I would think that almost 2/3rds of the way through a tourny you need to have seen at least a couple show downs from the villain. Is he what Registrar calls "a complete spaz"? In my experience at this limit, even this far in a tourny there are plenty of those. So has he ever shown down some paint like KQ or even an underpair? Or, if he's not a spaz but just trying too hard: How many hands has he been playing recently/how aggressively? Have you seen him try to use position before? If he thinks he can take a pot based on late position I think that loosens up his call requirements. Many people tighten up this close to the bubble, and if he's a decent player he may be trying to take advantage of that.

So what's your move on the flop? It's weird, I agree w/ most of the analysis above but reach a different result. I think most times Hero bets, Villain correctly folds all the worse hands and either calls or raises all the better hands. And as they say, poker is about inducing mistakes from your opponent, so any move likely to induce a correct play can't be the best option.

But like you say: he is going to take a stab at this pot if you check. Again, I'd like some read based on his past play to back up your 80% stab rate here, but knowing nothing but the situation that sounds reasonable. So, since I agree w/ Beenben and some others that you're committed to this hand, and I agree w/ you Villan's gonna stab at it I say check and then push all in.

The other argument for this is your Q. I know it's the weaker force but I think it's important this near the bubble. If you let the hand go passively here you'll have 2460 chips-- basically tied for last place at your table. You're also heading into the blinds the next two hands. So unless you get some cards the next two hands or the table goes passive, you'll be in last place, 4 of the other 5 players at the table will have twice your stack, and you'll basically be reduced to one and a half move poker. This is not a good place to be, especially because you said your ambition was to reach as high as possible- rather than hanging on into the money.

In your post I think the key was when you said "if I check...I won't have any idea of my opponents hand." This shows even more clearly then your later 80% that you beleive your opponent is gonna push with anything he called your earlier bet with. I'd definitly check here and plan on going all in...

(Also, one stupid question-[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]- what is FL? I looked in the Acronym Dictionary and coudln't find it).