Re: Variance
This is a fairly interesting thread. I will go out on a limb and say that an overwhelming % of players who experience a 1K BB downswing were not winners in that time. It can be attributed to poor game selection, or more likely, what I call "permatilt." Sometimes when we're losing, we try to adjust our play too much. We start folding because we've gotten screwed too many times by calling down, and we start calling down because we see one or two bluffs. Turns get checked behind with good hands because a scary card hits the board.
When we ignore long term trends and base our decisions off of paranoia, we will lose. Play your game. If you hit a long losing stretch, by all means, re-evaluate, but don't forget your fundamentals. I've been guilty of this in the past and would attribute all my downswings to this. There have been stretches where I've played like a top 10 LHE player, and there have been stretches where I've played like a breakeven 5/10 player. That's how the ball rolls.
Oh, and seriously, play longer when you're winning. 200BB sessions are very sweet, and although rare, usually result from a snowball effect. Just like you start playing worse when you lose (some more than others), your opponents WILL play worse when you start taking their money. The table will suddenly be at your command, and all the money will slowly shift towards you.
PS. I'm not sure if this was aba20's point or not, but the biggest thing that will cost a poker player is laziness. If we don't continue to study, we can't keep up with the competition. Everyone's slowly getting better, and our lack of work leads to a decline in sharpness. The combination can make even the best players average.
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