Re: Way ahead, way behind? AJs near the bubble.
I don't think pushing is a good idea, because a worse hand will never call, but if my opponent folds after pushing, he would probably also fold to the contbet.
Assuming that a worse hand will never call, a 700 continuation bet should win here approximately two times out of five to break even.
My equity is the following with the below ranges:
QQ-77,AQs+,KQs,AQo+ 54%
QQ-77,AQs+,AQo+ 53%
QQ-77,AQs+,AKo 58%
(Those who are missing AA-KK, including those hands would increase my equity in overall because I hold an ace [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])
I think in this hand these numbers are quite close to the real chances of having the best hand on the flop. So let's assume that my opponent will fold 5 or 6 times out of ten. Then I make 5 or 6 *1125 on this hand if he folds.
If he pushes to my contbet, I fold(?), and I lose the 700.
What is my plan if he simply calls? If I simply check/fold turn, than I lose 700. Assuming that I always fold when my contbet doesn't work, my EV is around 200-250 chips / contbet on the long run.
But if I check the flop, he will probably also bet weaker hands on the flop than he would bet on the turn after he called my flop bet and I checked. And if I'm ahead, he probably has max 4 outs to beat me.
What about inducing a bluff here? He will probably bet 80% of the time when I check, and a free card doesn't seem to be a catastrophe. And when he checks, I can go ahead on the turn.
Do you think that the fact that he will bet more hands than he will call with might ever outweight the chance of winning the money that is already in the pot in this situation?
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