Re: Conjecture and Question
Spee said: So let's say Tiger is roughly 2:1 or 2.5:1 to win the event (as he usually is rated by the bookies here in the UK). He then promptly goes out and eagles the first hole to take a two shot lead on the field. Does that increase his expectation? Maybe a little but not too much.
The Tiger Woods analogy holds up well. If Tiger eagles the first hole, it is already factored into his favorite status. An eagle with 71 holes to go should not affect anything. Similarly, a double-up, or even a triple-up early on should not affect expectation at all since top palyers are expected to double up several times thoughout the tourney. (I doubt they will get their stacks from 10K to 10 million, by just picking up blinds here and there.)
If anything, should a top player fail to double up fairly early (when the cannon fodder is still hanging around)his/her expectation should drop. I think we can all agree that it's easier to take chips from a decent amateur than from a world-ranked pro later on.
For what it's worth, that's my take, any comments?
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