Re: DERB
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I estimate that it is a terrible overcall. Worth a good steak dinner at least.
5 x 4 = 20 = 10
3 x 1 = 3 = 1.5
3 x 1 = 3
2 x 1 = 2
you'll be good about 1 in 50.
16.5 BB * 1 = 16.5
-1 * 49 = -49
-32.5 / 50 = -.65 BB
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what about the calls you save by not being bluffed at? what about POTS you save by not folding to bluffs because you get checked to w/ hands you might fold in marginal heads up river confrontations?
-Barron
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There is not a 1 in 50 chance that he is good here. I would never cap worse than AJ here on purpose. If you forced me to go out and figure exactly how many times he was good I would say roughly 1/100,000 because I probably misclick once every 75,000 clicks and then throw in that someone has already called and we start to get closer to the probability. So maybe he only loses 59 dollars and 96 cents on this call at the end and we were incorrect.
Also, Barron, you know better than to site metagame conditions here. It's not like he flashed his hand at the end and said "woops" or something. I had to check the HH. And regardless, he has called down in a number of situations where one more time making a stupid call down is not significantly contributing to his future EV.
-James
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