Re: Maximizing Value with the Mortal Nuts
Ok, let's say I am guy with J987 and you are guy with AAnut flush. (Not that we are either player, just so it's clear who I mean when I use "you" or "I")
You're saying if I checkraise the flop then you'll get all in for 150+bbs (not shallow, btw). (Realizing that you have the 3rd nuts without any way to improve if you're behind. And it's way unlikely anyone with K-flush would EVER do this.)
But if I bet the flop, you'll find that so suspicious that you'll check behind on the turn and might fold the river??
I think betting the flop is the best play by far. I can put you on AA due to your raise pf, but that doesn't mean you have the nutflush here so If I dont bet I risk getting it checked thru. If I bet the flop, I can possibly get small flushes to call as well as sets or two pair hands. Sure small flushes and two pairs will most likely fold when you raise, but thats more $$ in the pot for me that would've been completely shut out had I c/r'ed the flop.
So after I bet the flop, you would raise and I would just call to keep anyone else in. Then I would check to you on the turn and you'd bet allin basically and I would call and win. I have no idea how bet/calling the flop and checking the turn is so suspicious.
Even if we decide that AAnut flush man isn't folding the flop (which is fine, almost no one would), checking the flop in the first place still isn't the best play.
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