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Old 01-30-2007, 03:04 PM
ace93rd ace93rd is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: NYC
Posts: 231
Default Re: KK on board with 4-straight. Stupid bet?

Considering villian is how you described I think it is a bad idea to want to value-bet this river and get all the chips in. Considering how villian played hand his range is wide but probably fits into top-pair, inside str8 draw, or perhaps a two-pair/slow played set. The str8 draws got there by making the str8 or turning into two pair on river(ex: 57,56) How the hand played out I would lean equally towards him having you beat on river as him not. Now here is the catch, given that this is the case it wouldnt make logical sense to bet non all-in here..since if he has you beat he will most likely raise and win all $500 from you, whatever you bet as well as the rest since you are commited when he goes all-in)so 50% of time you will lose $500...on the other hand if you have him beat 50% of time but only bet say $300 he will just call that bet when you have him beat. so 50% of time he will win $500 and %50 of time you will win just $300. So given this, the only bet if one is to be made is all-in.

I guess to sum it up if you bet considering you are pot-commited anyway your bet should be all-in...although, wanting to put all your chips in on this type of board wont show a significant profit as your hand is quit vulnerable, you really only have over-pair which is only slight better than top pair....generally speaking Big pots should be made from big hands (sets, str8s,flush,fullhouse) and pots should be kept small when possible with vulnerable hands(Top pair, over-pair, even 2 pair).
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