[slik]

Thanks for the reply! It's really tough to mathematically analyze situations like this, and you do an admiral job.

The biggest problem I have is probably Matusow's assumption that no one else has high cards. While they may have premium hands, there is a very significant chance that someone has a premium hand with only high cards.

He also goes on to say as his only supporting evidence to do this very anti-intuitive move as that others probably dont have high cards, and then he will clean them out if high cards come. By his very claim, one would think his opponents will fold if all high cards come (if they all have low cards and completely miss the flop), giving him poor implied odds. Finally, his rag card gives him a 3 card (vs 4 card) handicap. Also, this doesn't take into account his very bad position, against seemingly "good players".

In the end, you conclude that it's marginally -EV. I wonder if anyone actually thinks it's neutral or +EV.