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Old 01-25-2007, 09:48 PM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,784
Default Re: Was it dumb of me to gamble on this draw?

Your math is pretty convoluted, so I'm not sure exactly what's wrong with it. However, this is a very good spot for hero. His equity's great against two sets, and pretty decent against one, especially if the third player folds blockers. The only kinda bad spot is against a wrap and a set, but even then, hero has the ability to fold to a turn board pair, so his long-term equity is a little better than it would appear.

Anyway, in the given situation, hero's 40% to win the hand on the flop. If he hits his heart on the turn, he likely gets called by both opponents for another $68 and definitely gets called by at least one. If he hits a queen on the turn, it's a similar spot. In this case, hero gets the rest of his money in with a 78% chance of winning. If villian hits his best card meanwhile, hero can safely fold.

On a blank turn, hero's about 27% and still gains a little equity from calling the turn versus folding in a three-way pot. On the actual turn card, hero's 33% to win three-ways and has an equal share of the dead money in the pot.

Cliff notes: Hero played the hand correctly. He had the right odds to call on all streets and a favorable situation by being able to fold some bad turns.
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