[Hobbs.]

sorry for the bump, but I'm wondering if anybody has any links to discussion of the assumption that holdem winrates and standard deviations are normally distributed. Putting some thought into this recently has lead me to the conclusion that a majority of individual hands are likely not normally distributed which likely will imply ones overall winrate isn't as well.

For example, AA in limit holdem is very likely going to have a fairly pronounced fat tail on the negative end of the distribution as the times one loses with AA it usually is greater than a couple of BBs. OTOH, it is common to win a wide range of BBs with AA ranging from winning to blinds to flopping a set and winning a huge pot. I'd think we'd see large deviations from a normal distribution on the losing side of the graph.

I guess I'm just looking for some general info if this has been discussed in the past with regards to downswing frequencies or bank roll requirements.

thanks