[Jerrod Ankenman]

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Jerrod, Jared...this is getting confusing... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyways, this is about Jerrod's example of betting the turn with the "correct mix" of hands. I know how many pair-combinations I play in certain positions and I can ballance it by adding as many other combinations like 2-suited-card or offsuit-cards with max-stretch. Unfortunately I have no idea how often those 4-card draws and those made hand monsters come up on the turn, so all that knowledge doesn't help. If I bet everything just as it shows up, I am almost certain to have an incorrect mix.

It would have been nice to see some stats tables in the book and maybe one of example of how the ballancing is done, but that's of course missing....too bad I am not Brian Alspach.

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Well yeah, if we knew how to find "the correct mix" then we could easily find the optimal strategy. So we guess in an informed way, with an eye to making our distribution reasonable no matter what cards come on later streets. This isn't hard in holdem because you can easily mix together draws and made hands in all sequences. It's not so easy in stud, where if your board is 952 rainbow you just can't have much of a drawing hand. i don't know what the answer there is; mostly I just try to play a lot of hands in the same way so that I'm not very readable.

jerrod

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Don't know the correct mix? What's 1/(P+1)
and s/(1+s) all about? Isn't that the correct
mix? Or the more general b/(P+b), where P
is the pot and b is the bet. For every legit
bet or raise, bet b/(P+b) additional hands.

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Well, this doesn't apply so easily to streets before the river. After all, some of the hands you are bluffing are semi-bluffs which have equity on the next street. So if you bluffed with a ratio of 1 to (p+1) value bets, you'd be bluffing too infrequently, as on the next street some of your bluffs would turn into value bets and you'd have too few bluffs. This would happen even if you incorporated "give up bluffs" like we discuss in the multiple street bet sizing examples into your turn strategy.

Not to mention that some of your hands will improve but still lose because your hand distributions aren't as bifurcated as they are in toy games, your opponent can raise and could potentially have all kinds of funky distributions coming into or going out of this street, and so on.

jerrod