[Gar Pike]

Happy Friday, Buzz.

I see I didn't read your post as well as I should have. You were thinking that, on average(or, as a good hand analysis starting assumption), Hero will wind up spending $25 over the course of the hand for a $35 return.

I inverted the hand percentages, they should have been

1:1.4
1:1.08
1:1.27
1:1.32

I was getting the "overlay" from difference between the pot odds, 1.4, and the (admittedly best case) hand odds to win, 1.08

It looked to me like you were saying the 2 were roughly equal, I didn't think they were.

And wondered if you thought that made any difference to your suggestion that check/call was the best move.

If I understand you right, you'd check because you didn't want to get raised, but call a bet because you had favorable odds to continue.

Fair enough, but I don't see how that fits into the feint/parry mode of HU play. Unless you'd do the same thing with something like As2s9T.

IS it being OOP that should make one play more straightforwardly? Would you bet OP's hand if the positions were reversed?

As far as I can tell, the fewer players, the less it is about the actual cards and odds, and the more it is about how I can manipulate their perception of how their cards compare to mine. I bet strong hands and weak ones, and I check strong hands and weak ones. Not always in the same ratio, at different times.

I read somewhere that game theory suggests that the optimum bluff betting percentage was the inverse of the pot odds. HU, that means between up to 1/2 the time, on the flop.

Do you think a bet here is purely a bluff? I think there is actual value in a bet, here, so I should be more inclined to bet.

Regards,

Gar