[bigbootch]

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Is that really what you've termed "Luckyme syndrome" or is it simply a case of 2 conflicting sets of background probabilities? In her experience, P(dead|symptoms) = 1. In your experience P(!dead|wet) = 1.

In my technical experience, because I know a thing or two about wet electronics, I would expect the phone to recover. But I don't see an obvious way, by reasoning from probabilities, that one could conclude you were right and she was wrong.

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I can't speak for DS, but let me give this a try:

Yes, he is talking about 2 conflicting background probabilities. The difference is, one is much more specific than the other: his own personal experience with that particular phone under his particular usage patterns, versus all phones (of that same make and model) under all usage patterns by all people. I think he is saying that in this case, #1 takes precedence over #2.

Another example that might be more intuitive might be: most people struggle in class XYZ, but I've had some exposure to XYZ before and it's something that I personally am very good at, so I most likely will do well in the class.