Re: Another Example of The luckyme Syndrome
Is that really what you've termed "Luckyme syndrome" or is it simply a case of 2 conflicting sets of background probabilities? In her experience, P(dead|symptoms) = 1. In your experience P(!dead|wet) = 1.
In my technical experience, because I know a thing or two about wet electronics, I would expect the phone to recover. But I don't see an obvious way, by reasoning from probabilities, that one could conclude you were right and she was wrong.
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