[Matt Ruff]

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You're not paying attention. Hero is bet-folding this flop.

1) If UTG raises QQ to knock out A3o, it doesn't matter because Hero is also folding.

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If UTG raises, Hero is getting over 15-1 and should call. He can always check-fold the turn if he misses his set.

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2) If UTG does not raise, then A3o is definitely calling to see the turn.

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There's a famous Ed Miller post from 2004, "Why you guys aren't crushing these Microlimit games," where he urged 2+2ers to stop folding big pots for one bet. Here's the example hand he used to make his point:

"There was a post just this morning where someone limped in with A3s on the button after two limpers. The big blind raise behind and everyone called. The flop was AQ2, and the action went BB bet, one limper called, and it was your action. You have top frickin pair in a big (i.e. raised) pot, and it is one bet to you. The BB's bet shows no more strength than what he showed when he raised before the flop. He could easily have KQ or TT or 76s. The limper called... that means he has.. well, two cards. You are getting 11-1 on a call, and did I mention that you have top frickin pair?

"And yet half (or more) of the advice told him to fold. TERRIBLE! Horrible, terrible, wretched poker advice. The pot is big, you have a good hand, no one has shown any real strength, and you are gonna bail? Absurd. Yes, sometimes the raiser will have AQ and you'll lose a couple of bets. But the pot is already way bigger than a "couple of bets." And when you have the raiser beaten, he's gonna be the one losing a couple of bets to you when he pays YOU off with his KK or whatever.

"WHEN THE POT IS BIG DO NOT FOLD DECENT HANDS FOR ONE BET! Just stop doing it."

Now granted, this was written back before SSHE got published, so maybe things are different now. Maybe the word's gotten out that you should never fold top pair, weak kicker to one bet on the flop when the pot is big. But I don't believe it.