[psuasskicker]

You can't fold here, the price is right.

First of all, no it's not. Second, there's a player to act behind you who, while passive, could fold (which would suck if you called cause you want his extra money which makes the call more marginal rather than just bad), and could raise which turns your call into a disaster.

with no threat of a raise behind me this is an easy peel.

Why is it that any time someone says an opponent is passive, there's an automatic assumption that they will NEVER bet their hand? I have yet to see an opponent who will never bet/raise. As such, you have to assign a probability to how often they will raise or fold their hand.

You're getting 8 to 1 to call. Let's say the passive guy folds 33% of the time, raises 10% of the time, and calls the rest. You get 9 to 1 57% of the time, 8 to 1 33%, and 6 to 1 or worse the other 10%. That nets out to 8.37 to 1 on calling here, and you're about 10.7 to 1 against hitting your gut-shot on the turn.

If you wanna play this pot, I'd play it to win it. Your 8 or 7 may be outs against the PFR who could easily be on overcards, but the passive player behind you may make them some or all no good (depending on his hand). Raise to push him out, buy the button, and get a free river if you want to play; or with the intention of trying to bet the PFR off his hand on the turn (which I'll do a lot if I raise here and the button folds).

Otherwise I just let this one go cause the price on the flop isn't attractive enough for me to think it's worth it.

- C -