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Old 02-11-2006, 11:34 AM
busted busted is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 44
Default Re: 2/4 87s, flops gutshot

[ QUOTE ]
If I wanna take a card off here, I'm raising to try to buy the river for free.

Doing this also tends to get my stronger hands three bet later in the session, so I don't mind this either. That said, I'm folding most of the time in this situation.

- C -

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I mainly agree with this reasoning. If you raise, it's likely the SB will check to you on the turn. If you check, the passive button will probably also check and you get to see the river for free. Your hand is basically a weak draw with the gutshot, backdoor flush draw, and no overcards.

How many outs do you have? I count 4 possible outs for the gutshot, but one of these (6d) is probably voided because of the flush draw. Also 1.5 discounted outs for the backdoor flush draw. So a total of 4.5 outs, so hero is a 9.4:1 underdog at this point (42.5:4.5).

Also, the 2-suited board is a concern -- hero is very vulnerable to a range of hands (TP, flush draw, lots of possible overpairs out there with the 9-high flop, and lots of overcards for opponents).

Without position, I'd probably fold the flop, mainly cause I thinks it's an EV- situation with 2 opponents betting).

Another consideration is pot size. From my perspective, this is a borderline "large pot in the making." My threshold is 8 SB PF, with 10 SB indicating a good chance that this is a VERY BIG pot in the making. If the pot size was 8 SB or more, I'd tend more to play this hand.

If I decide to play this hand, I always play it aggressively. Thus raising the flop and calling a possible 3-bet. As noted above, this may lead to a relatively cheap free card, where you can see if you've hit your draws (and muck the hand if not). This will also likely cause the button to fold and get you HU against SB, where you've got position and it would only cost you 1 BB to get to SD (and possibly for free if he checks to you on the river).

P.S. This reminds me of the type of hand that I like to play when I first sit down at a table. I'll intentionally play like a maniac -- jamming the pot and betting and raising at every opportunity -- all the way to SD. Any observant players who see my hole cards will categorize me as a maniac. I like to encourage this impression for obvious reasons.

Later on, when I tighten up considerably, they'll probably think I'm just checking my email or getting a beer.
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