[ QUOTE ]
The villian has a A35J.
[/ QUOTE ]Comic - That's very interesting.
Villain raises the flop and by so doing gets you to check to him on the next two betting rounds.
Considering your hand and the flop, with two opponents seeing the flop, there are eight active opponent slots where one of the two missing queens could be located.
<ul type="square">scratch:
(43!/6!/37! + 44!/7!/37!)/(45!/8!/37!) =
6096454+38320568/215553195 =
44417022/215553195 = 0.206[/list]
Before either of them acts, assuming no favoring or disfavoring of starting hands with queens, the probability of finding a queen amongst the eight cards collectively held by your two opponents is about 20%.
In other words, before there is any action, it's about four to one that neither of these villains has a queen.
It also should seem to your opponents before there is any action that the probability you or the other opponent has a queen is about 20%.
But when you bet, it should look a bit more to each opponent as though you actually do have a queen. Of course if you bet too often without a card it should look like you have, then your opponents are not likely to believe you. Or maybe one or both of them don't believe you even if you don't bet too often without holding what you are representing with your bet.
At any rate, you boldly bet the flop without a queen, expecting that four times out of five, neither of the two of these guys has a queen and that maybe you can steal the pot. Seems right to do at least some of the time.
But Villain MP2 doesn't buy it that you have a queen. (I think if he puts you on a queen, he doesn't waste two bets on the second betting round).
And now it is your turn again. From your viewpoint, MP2 either doesn't buy it that you have a queen and has bluff raised, or MP2 has a queen himself, or perhaps a full house, and has made a value raise.
Pretty hard for you to tell which, even if you know something about how MP2 usually plays. He says he has a queen (by raising) - but he could have a queen here or not. (You also said you had a queen by betting).
Looks more or less like a stalemate to me. MP2 has position on you and thus has the advantage. It isn't only 20% that he has a queen any more, since he has more or less represented a queen with his 2nd round bluff raise.
But we have to know how often he does it to assign a probability to it.
Now that we know he does this, the next time it happens, we can re-raise to see what MP2 will do. From MP2's perspective, there will be a possibility Hero has a queen, as represented by Hero's 2nd round bet and re-raise. And, from MP2's perspective, one time out of five, one of his two opponents should actually have a queen.
Interesting. It's still pretty tough for you to bet that river. And if you had any inclination to bluff-bet the turn, it might be better to have already bluff-re-raised on the second betting round.
Buzz