Re: DERB
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Does anyone know from their PT DB what his Sigma/100 hands is? It has to be higher than what most of us are used to.
Since I don't have the data I can't do any serious analysis, but we can wait for Cypher for that.
Just for the fun of it I calculated the probability of a break even player running this well or better over 80k hands.
Assuming 80k hands and a winrate of 3BB/100:
Sigma/100 ---- Probability
15 ----------- 7.7e-9
20 ----------- 1.1e-5
25 ----------- 3.4e-4
30 ----------- 2.3e-3
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so for all intents and purposes, even the high STDEV #s are 0% probability (.0023 is still pretty damn close to 0 and i dont even think he plays enough hands and is crazy enough to have a 30bb/100 st.dev...thats just hard to accomplish given the # of hands he plays. HOWEVER< it may make sense because the curve of st.dev (y) to # hands played aggressively (x) would look something like a less extreme right hand side of a parabola...something like y=.5*x^2. this is the case because of the incremental addition of each hand would add less to your variance if you are playing few hands because you're just not playing enough hands to even have a variance...but as you play more and more hands, each addition hand will add proportionally more to your variance than if you were playing fewer hands because NOW you're playing so many hands that the probability of being up or down large amounts increases substantially....)
well, ok, i've now convinced myself that he may actually have a st.dev well over 30bb/100...thats a huge st.dev....but it makes the probability of him running well fall within "reasonable" limits.
-Barron
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