Re: Am I going to lose my ass (football board)?
EV=p(all right)*payout
=p(q1 right)*p(q2right)*p(q3 right)*p(q4 right)*payout.
Assuming each question is idependent...
=(.6)^4*-8000=.1286*-8000=-1036.80.
But, it is clear that these aren't independent events. Clearly, who scores first has a big impact on if the spread is covered. There may be others that I am missing too.
I'm not entire sure how your system works, but if more than 1 person has an oppertunity to wik 8k, should also be thinking about variance, risk of ruin, value at risk, etc.
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