[Bill Smith]

[ QUOTE ]
i mean villains stats tell us something about his betting and raising, but it doesn't tell us that he is an idiot, right? i would say his range preflop includes ANY pocket pair. when ejay reraised him preflop villain practically knew he was up against AA, KK, QQ or the like. considering the big stacks and that he will hit a set about 1 in 8 times he can easily call preflop and go all-in if he hits his set. because he knows he will be called most of the time by opponents who think like you (who say call is the right move).

of course he could have KK or AA (why doesn't anybody consider AA?). but i seriously doubt he would go all-in with QQ or a lower PP that didnt make a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, welcome to the forum. Your points are mostly correct, but that doesn't necessarily turn this into a fold.

I guess going point-by-point, we're ignoring AA mostly because there's only 1 combo left of AA in the deck - we're holding the other 2 aces. It also results in a push.

There are 6 combos of KK, 6 combos of QQ, and only 9 combos of 99, 55, and 44 combined. So, even if we assume he'll only push with AA-QQ and a set, we still have a call.

I do believe that our villian will push QQ here, and possibly JJ/TT as well. If he is thinking and knows we are thinking, we could have very easily 3-bet with AK (or worse if he's been picking on us) and he might be able to push us off of KK-JJ, or even AA.

Lastly, the fact that villian is in position makes it less likely that he would push a set here. He could easily call and expect us to bet again with a big hand. If he were first to act, a c/r all-in would probably be more correct with a set as it looks like he's protecting something, and keeps Hero from checking the turn through to keep the pot small.