Re: Variance
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aba,
I'm a big fanboy of yours but I think you are just plain wrong about how high stakes limit posters use variance to rationalize anything. Everyone in this thread is being overly concerned that a big downswing is NOT due to variance. You don't (to my knowledge) have the experience of playing shorthanded limit holdem games with only a small edge and seeing the significance of short term luck in that game.
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You are right, I didn't word what I was trying to say well at all. After rereading it didn't come across as I meant to. And I was speaking about my NL experience as I only have 30-40K hands of limit experience. I realize this is the limit forum (And I admit I am inexperienced in limit) but I think the message I am trying to help people learn is still there.
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I feel like I'm defending limit players from you but I've seen plenty of NL players report major downswings on the high limit NL forums and BBV and a lot of those guys were big winners for a long time.
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Most every NL player I have read about experienceing major downswings I felt like was not a good player\ a small winner.
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I'd hate to see a guy go through a downswing and then say "well I'm done with this game/limit because this can't be bad luck" when it often can.
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I don't think when people go through these downswings they should quit. They just shouldn't say the reason for this downswing is outside there control. They should analysis there game and see how they can improve. Every big downswing I have had has been caused by my poor play.
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Also, you use the word "variance" to describe how a small winner rationalizes why he isn't a big winner but I think more frequently variance causes a small winner or a slight loser to BE a big winner over some amount of hands.
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I was trying to address the players that think the reason for not moving up limits for the past year is due to there bad luck or variance. This may or may not be the thread to address those people.
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