Re: Variance
aba20, I'm pretty sure you play a lot better than I, but this is just completely wrong. Assuming you have complete control over your results in poker is a good way to go insane and susequently broke.
"People act like there is some outside force beyond their control."
There is, the randomness of the deal. This is really obvious.
"Well there isn't your results are based off of your actions and nothing else."
Ok, I'm all in on the turn with Jd Td, and my opponent has Ad Kh. The board is Ah 7d 4d Kd. I will leave this hand up $5000 or down $5000. This result is not under my control.
"People need to take responsibility for there losses and realize they are to blame for losing and not some statistical anomaly."
The funny thing is that among players in the high stakes forum, the statistical anomoly is how much they win. Overestimating your edge can be just as dangerous. Sometimes you lose because you're unlucky, and sometimes you win because you are lucky.
"When I am losing or on a downswing I don't blame variance or bad luck I look to myself, because I know that I am probably off my game."
While I agree that a player who is losing should check their game, players sometimes try to fix problems that aren't there, and actually move toward less optimal play, making their downswing worse.
"Take responsibility for your play and results. Both are a direct cause from your actions. "
I strongly belive you control your play, but cannot control your results. Lots of new players who run well initially think they have found a way to take the luck out of poker. "If someone is losing, he's not playing well". This would, of course, be preferable, but it's not the case. There is a ton of luck in poker, and all you can do is try and play your best. Thinking you have control over your results over nonhuge samples is at best naive, and at worst dangerous. If 10 identical players play 100,000 hands of 300/600 shorthanded limit holdem, the average difference between the results of the biggest winner and the biggest loser is right around one million dollars. Going into high stakes poker and not being prepared for luck having that much control over your results sends a lot of players will decent skills to the poorhouse.
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