Re: Variance
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this has been an excellent discussion and one that everyone should read carefully if for no other reason than to learn how to properly manage their bankroll. just to throw out a hypothetical question -- what would anyone consider to be the largest downswing someone could have and still be within the consideration of being a "good" player. (now i know that it depends on what level you play and what people consider "good" to be. let's say for arguements sake that the levels played at are in the 10/20 to 50/100 range and that a good player is one capable of being expected to have a true winrate of 0.75bb/100+.) is a 1500 bb downswing as large as imaginable? how about 2000 bb? 2500 bb? are we in the suicidal range yet?
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The answer to your question completely depends on what confidence level you personally would need in order to say "I'm willing to assume X." 95%? 99%? 99.8%? (Obviously, there doesn't exist an X such that you can ever be 100% sure.)
I.e. your question is like asking "Let's say we flip a coin and it keeps coming up heads, after how many times would you consider it a weighted coin?" Somebody who is willing to accept a lower confidence rate might say 5. Someone else who requires a much (much much) higher confidence rate might say 5000.
-bigbootch
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