Re: Variance
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Why doesn't someone just reverse the problem and estimate, given say 200 players with winrates of 1 BB/100 the likelihood of 1 or more having a 450 BB downswing. I suspect the probability is uncomfortably large.
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You also need to specify how many hands each player plays. If they each play 10K hands, it's probably not a certainty (though still quite likely). If each plays 100K hands, then it is just about an absolute certainty.
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