Re: Variance
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Why doesn't someone just reverse the problem and estimate, given say 200 players with winrates of 1 BB/100 the likelihood of 1 or more having a 450 BB downswing. I suspect the probability is uncomfortably large.
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pretty sure this is pretty much what GoT did a while back, i think he did it for various winrates though, and yes the numbers were scary as hell.
Im sure someone could dig up a link.
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joshthief did it too with similiarly scary results.
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