Thread: Variance
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Old 01-13-2007, 03:18 PM
SA125 SA125 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Peaks and Valleys
Posts: 3,183
Default Re: Variance

I have high regard for Josh W's posts and they're always one of the first I go to in a thread. I'm only responding because I guess I'm one of the novices he referred to that Dean would have hoped to support his conclusion. I wonder if Josh thinks he could lose 1200BB's playing live?

I don't disagree with what the better high stakes players have said here about their situation. I also don't see how a player could lose 1200 BB's playing limit live and still think he's a winner at the game. I doubt Josh thinks he could lose that much live also. I seriously doubt it.

I've read ggbman's take. He's obviously a very smart young man who has made a tremendous amount of money at poker and is wise beyond his years. Disagreeing with him is sobering.

I've played online and think there's a major difference between being a winner live and online than just the number of hands.

I'm a much better live player than online simply because I have a tremendous amount of added factors to aid in my decision making process than I do online. Whether Josh thinks it's a tremendous difference, who knows? His results say it could be but maybe it truly isn't the case.

I know a guy who's played live full time for 5 years. He plays no higher than 30-60 limit. He's a solid, winning player cut from the TAG mold. The topic of running bad often comes up at the table. It always amuses me when he says running bad is overrated. That you can't run bad for months. I know others would say it's bs but they don't get what he means.

What he means is what happened to me this week. I play NL Mon-Fri 5-6 hrs a day. This week on Mon I was card dead/missed for 5 hrs and lost a buy-in. Tues I sat down hot for the first 35 min, but cooled off quickly and lost < 1/2 BI. Wed was the same except for one big confrontation where I had the best of it, held up and won 2 BI's. Thurs won two small pots in 4 1/2 hrs that seemd like 4 1/2 years and lost > 1/2 BI. Fri the deck didn't hit me in the face, but it came my way and I won good.

I played 30 hrs and won $60 an hr. If it was limit I'm still a small winner because I'd have lost a lot less also. Card wise, the week was brutally awful. A more than avg bad one.
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