[wackjob]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe against this particular opponent it's a fold. But surely you can see that always folding in this spot is a losing strategy in general? If opponent only raises with Q/Q5 or 55 (15% of the time or so), ok, fold; you're going to be paying 1.5BB or 2.5BB for a 16% chance at half of a 8BB/10BB pot and might get quartered even if you pull out a low. But if opponent also raises with suited hearts or a 5 or KK in hand, you have a shot at the high. And while the backdoor low doesn't provide enough equity by itself to chase on this hand, it really lowers the bar as far as the amount of high-side equity you need to call (especially against one opponent, where you know you can limit the damage on later streets).
As regards chasing the low, the above makes it seem more -EV than it is, the key being that some of the time you don't pay the 1BB on the turn because you fold.
10.5 SB in pot, we pay 1SB to see the turn:
20/45 we get a low card (pay another BB as opponent bets)
25/45 we get no low card and fold (this is not how it played out, but just by way of general example...): (EV so far is -25/45 * 1SB=-.27BB)
16/44 on the river we make our nut low, getting half the pot (EV from this is 20/45*16/44*7.75BB/2=+0.63BB)
28/44 no low and we fold (EV from this is 20/45*28/44*-1.5BB=-.42BB)

So the low chase is -EV, but only by .06BB. You don't need much of a high draw or much of a chance the opponent is bluffing to call here.


[/ QUOTE ]

you are trying to make some weird twist of math to prove that you should peel this flop. i promise you that if you peel this flop as your normal play it is going to cost you money, and probably a lot of money. too often you will get caught chasing for 1/2 or 1/4 and all those little bets on the flop are really going to add up. folding the flop here is the correct play, i don't even think its close. the times that you get something you like on the turn and then see the river and are still smoked are really going to cost you a lot. micro-analyzing this hand is retarded, in online poker you are playing a large quantity of hands and you want to make the best decisions on the fly, usually because you are multi-tabling, but even if not, you don't want to put yourself in situations that are super hazardous like this with the off chance that you will occassionaly be making a correct play, because the majority of the time you are not.